“Judging Freedom” on the Russian retaliatory scenario
It was an honor to join Judge Andrew Napolitano yesterday on his widely watched program “Judging Freedom” to discuss the possible escalatory scenarios for Russian retaliation over a missile strike on its heartland coming from Ukraine but de facto directed by the West.
Prof. Gilbert Doctorow, PhD: Are Russian Threats Serious?
The scenario which I sketched there, namely the first strike on Kiev, second strike on Poland marshalling center for weaponry, third strike against manufacturers and targeting programmers in the UK, France, Germany was intended to make the point that direct strikes on the Continental United States are the last and most desperate Russian response to any proxy attack on its homeland, not the first response, as several of my peers have opined. That logic seems to have calmed some readers, as it was intended to do.
In his meeting with the international press two days ago, Putin spoke about an ‘asymmetric’ retaliatory response, namely shipping advanced arms to forces opposed to U.S. and its allies, which are in a position to do extensive damage to American assets. The recipients of these arms might be, for example, the Houthis in Yemen or the militia in Iraq and Syria.
I do not believe that this response would be sufficient to satisfy Russian elites if the strike coming from Ukraine did some very substantial damage and caused significant loss of life in Russia. But what he said corresponds to my notion that Putin will not start an all-out nuclear war with the United States as his first response, only as his last response.
However, events are moving with blinding speed, and the Russians did something yesterday which one could not have anticipated from the press meeting or from any other Russian public statements over the past several weeks: they dispatched the warship Admiral Gorshkov and a task force to the Caribbean Sea for “exercises.” Note that the Gorshkov is equipped with hypersonic nuclear capable Zircon missiles that could reach Washington, D.C., for example, in 5 or 10 minutes from the Caribbean. In effect, at least for the duration of the “exercises” Moscow has recreated the underlying situation that precipitated the Cuban missile crisis, only doing so from naval vessels that are in international waters and so are totally legal and unassailable, except if you wish to go directly to war.
It will be interesting to see what Washington makes of this development after someone taps Admiral Kirby on the shoulder and requests an explanation.
©Gilbert Doctorow, 2024